Despite concerns over cannibalization by mobile phones, research groups continue to point to aggressive portable mp3 player growth. In-Stat is the latest to diagram a hockey stick, projecting quadrupled demand by 2009, with total player sales crossing 104 million units. According the finding, released Tuesday, the massive increase will be propelled by lowered prices, increased storage, and the ever-popular iPod. Total revenues on both flash-based and hard drive players will surpass $4.5 billion in the next five years, a 200 percent jump over current volume. Interestingly, In-Stat also noted that Apple retains a 30.2 percent share of the total portable mp3 player market, a far more conservative estimate than other recent reports.
Overall, the market seems to be evolving and differentiating rather rapidly. "As competition heats up, vendors are striving to differentiate products by offering a wide range of price points, memory capacities, and features," explained Stephanie Guza, an In-Stat analyst. "As a result, we are seeing increased segmentation. For example, the hard disk drive (HDD) digital audio player segment can be sub-divided into two categories: the 1-inch or smaller segment and the 1.8-inch segment." That diversification makes sense given the heavy demand projection, with an increase in users likely to encourage a wide variety of different devices. Meanwhile, Apple is starting to feel some pressure from competitors like Samsung, Rio, Creative and iRiver, though a quiet price war may result in an industry shake-out. >> Digital music news
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